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In early October 2026, Thailand's Ministry of Commerce released three sets of figures in quick succession: September headline inflation of 2.82% year on year, with the full-year forecast range narrowed to 1.8% to 2.2%; the 10th round of Thai–EU free trade agreement talks ended on 6 October, aiming to conclude within the year; and negotiations on the Thai–UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) were completed on 7 October. Together they point to changes in the cost and market environment for companies operating in Thailand.

1. September Inflation at 2.82%, Full-Year Forecast Range Narrowed

Figures released by the Ministry of Commerce on 6 October show that the consumer price index (CPI) for September 2026 was 102.93 (100.11 a year earlier):

• Headline inflation up 2.82% year on year (2.53% in August)

• Core inflation up 1.50% year on year (1.44% in August)

• Up 0.25% month on month, with non-food items up 0.30% and food and non-alcoholic beverages up 0.18%

• Food and non-alcoholic beverages up 3.07% year on year; non-food items up 2.67%

Third-quarter inflation was 2.44% year on year and down 0.45% quarter on quarter; the average for the first nine months was 1.54% year on year.

Internationally, Thailand ranked 39th of 139 economies and 5th among the 10 ASEAN countries.

Higher global oil prices were the main driver. Another relevant factor is electricity: the tariff for September to December 2026 is THB 3.86 per unit, down from THB 3.95 in the previous period.

The full-year forecast revision is the most notable part: the ministry narrowed its 2026 inflation forecast range from 1.5% to 2.5% (midpoint 2.0%) to 1.8% to 2.2% (midpoint 2.0%). The midpoint is unchanged but the range is narrower, meaning the official view of the trend is more certain and the downside has been removed.

2. Thai–EU FTA Round 10 Ends, Aiming to Conclude This Year

The 10th round of Thai–EU FTA negotiations took place from 28 September to 6 October 2026. The Ministry of Commerce said the talks are near the finish line and market access issues are being accelerated, with the aim of concluding within 2026.

In B.E. 2568 (2025) the EU was Thailand's fourth-largest trading partner:

• Total bilateral trade of USD 45.033 billion (about RMB 319.7 billion), up 3.44%

• Thai exports to the EU of USD 26.449 billion, up 9.27%

• Thai imports from the EU of USD 18.584 billion, down 3.86%

• A Thai surplus of USD 7.865 billion

3. Thai–UAE CEPA Negotiations Completed

Thai–UAE CEPA negotiations were completed by video conference on 7 October 2026, in the fifth round of talks, which began in B.E. 2566 (2023). On 8 October, Thailand's Prime Minister met the UAE Minister of Foreign Trade to mark the conclusion.

The Ministry of Commerce disclosed the expected benefits:

• A GDP gain of USD 318 million to 357 million, or THB 10.7 billion to 12.2 billion (about RMB 2.35 billion to 2.68 billion)

• An export gain of USD 227 million to 243 million, or THB 7.6 billion to 8.1 billion

In B.E. 2568 (2025) the UAE was Thailand's eighth-largest trading partner globally and its largest in the Middle East, with bilateral trade of USD 21.25972 billion: Thai exports of USD 4.50423 billion and imports of USD 16.75549 billion. Excluding oil, gas and gold, Thailand ran a surplus of about USD 3 billion.

4. Also Worth Noting: Foreign Investment Figures from the Ministry

Although outside this week's window, figures released by the Ministry of Commerce on 18 August are useful for judging Chinese investment trends in Thailand: in the first seven months of 2026, 736 foreign businesses were approved (177 licences and 559 certificates), with investment of THB 219.208 billion (about RMB 48.2 billion), up 37%, employing 5,229 Thai staff. By country, China ranked first by number with 133 businesses (18%) and THB 38.603 billion of investment; Singapore led by value (THB 61.112 billion, 97 businesses). In the EEC, 220 were approved (30%) with THB 85.615 billion (39%), of which China accounted for 80 businesses and THB 30.042 billion.

Key Takeaways

1. September 2026 headline inflation 2.82% year on year (2.53% in August), core inflation 1.50%; CPI at 102.93.

2. The ministry narrowed its full-year inflation forecast from 1.5%–2.5% to 1.8%–2.2%, with the midpoint held at 2.0%.

3. Thai–EU FTA Round 10 (28 September to 6 October 2026) ended, aiming to conclude in 2026; 2025 bilateral trade USD 45.033 billion, Thai surplus USD 7.865 billion.

4. Thai–UAE CEPA negotiations completed on 7 October 2026, with an expected GDP gain of THB 10.7 to 12.2 billion.

5. Reference: in the first seven months of 2026, 736 foreign businesses approved with THB 219.208 billion (+37%); China ranked first by number with 133.

Z&X Tip

If both agreements come into force on schedule, the most direct impact will be on rules of origin and tariff classification. Companies exporting to the EU or the Middle East from a Thai base will need to recheck HS codes, cumulation rules and certificate types, and should do so as soon as the texts are published rather than waiting for the first orders. The narrower inflation range means less room for cost swings, so annual budgets can be set at the 2.0% midpoint. The "Cross-Border Transactions and Pricing" and "International Tax Treaties and Policy" modules of the Z&X Annual Finance & Tax Advisory Retainer can handle this modelling; where related-party pricing is involved, it can be assessed through Transfer Pricing Services. Neither agreement is in force yet; the final texts prevail.

Sources

• ราคาน้ำมันโลกสูง หนุนเงินเฟ้อเดือนกันยายน 2569 เพิ่มขึ้นร้อยละ 2.82 (iid 2255) | Ministry of Commerce, Thailand | 2026-10-06 | https://www.moc.go.th/th/gallery/category/detail/id/5/iid/2255

• FTA ไทย-EU เข้าใกล้เส้นชัย เร่งเดินหน้าเจรจาเปิดตลาด มุ่งสรุปผลภายในปีนี้ (iid 2256) | Ministry of Commerce, Thailand | 2026-10-07 | https://www.moc.go.th/th/gallery/category/detail/id/5/iid/2256

• นายกฯ "ไทย" ต้อนรับรัฐมนตรีการค้าต่างประเทศ "UAE" ยินดีพาณิชย์ฯ ปิดดีลเจรจา CEPA ไทย-UAE (iid 2262) | Ministry of Commerce, Thailand | 2026-10-08 | https://www.moc.go.th/th/gallery/category/detail/id/5/iid/2262

• "พาณิชย์" เผย 7 เดือนปี 69 ต่างชาติลงทุนในไทย 2.19 แสนล้านบาท โตพุ่ง 37% (iid 2104) | Ministry of Commerce, Thailand | 2026-08-18 | https://www.moc.go.th/th/gallery/category/detail/id/5/iid/2104