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Analyze the challenges and opportunities of the industry in Thailand
On 20 October, the Trade Policy and Strategy Office of Thailand's Ministry of Commerce released an analysis: from 2016 to 2025, China's share of Thailand's imports rose from 21.6% to 31.1%, and the US share of Thailand's exports rose from 11.4% to 21.4%; foreign direct investment into Thailand grew 30.3% in 2025 to USD 19.1 billion.
The report says Thailand's links with major markets and supply chains have deepened markedly. From 2016 to 2025:
The US share of exports rose from 11.4% to 21.4%;
China's share of imports rose from 21.6% to 31.1%;
Taiwan's share of imports rose from 3.7% to 7.4%.
Technology and electronics products have also gained weight: the export share of computer equipment (HS 8471) rose from 4.9% to 6.7%, the export share of communications equipment (HS 8517) rose from 1.2% to 5.1%, and the import share of integrated circuits (HS 8542) rose from 4.8% to 10.0%.
The report cautions that some short-term data may be affected by front-loaded exports ahead of tariffs taking effect and by inventory adjustments.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Thailand grew 30.3% in 2025 to USD 19.1 billion (about RMB 135.6 billion), with investment trending toward electronics, semiconductors, the digital economy and renewable energy. The report positions Thailand as a "connector economy" and notes that companies widely adopt strategies such as "China+1", nearshoring or friendshoring, and stockpiling critical supplies.
High dependence on a small number of markets and raw material sources;
Competition from Chinese products and pressure from overcapacity;
Rules of origin, as well as environmental, labor and traceability standards;
Export growth accompanied by rising imports of high-value components, so domestic value added may not rise in step.
Diversify markets, products and raw material sources;
Upgrade industries, raise domestic value added, and integrate SMEs into global supply chains;
Adapt to new trade rules and standards;
Deepen strategic economic partnerships;
Develop infrastructure and supply chain risk management.
In the same week, the Ministry of Commerce said the Thailand-European Free Trade Association FTA is targeted to enter into force on 1 January 2027 and the Thailand-EU FTA negotiations are targeted for conclusion within 2026; the press release on the Toyota hydrogen fuel cell pickup project approved by the BOI specifically stated local purchases of raw materials and parts of about THB 640 million a year. More FTAs and investment projects that emphasize local purchasing are consistent with the report's recommendations to "raise domestic value added and adapt to new rules".
China's share of Thailand's imports rose from 21.6% to 31.1% over ten years.
The US share of exports rose from 11.4% to 21.4%.
FDI grew 30.3% in 2025 to USD 19.1 billion, concentrated in electronics, semiconductors, digital and renewable energy.
Officials are focused on rules of origin, traceability standards and domestic value added.
The report repeatedly refers to rules of origin and domestic value added. A Thai factory's local sourcing ratio, raw material sources and production processes affect both its eligibility for preferential tariffs on exports and the conditions of BOI projects. Companies planning to build a factory in Thailand should check these at the project approval stage. Z&X Company Registration & Approval Services for Chinese Manufacturers in Thailand work backward from the production start date, placing company setup, BOI, factory licensing, equipment import and staff visas on a single schedule; for how the schedule is arranged, see our manufacturing setup roadmap solution.
สนค. แนะไทยเร่งสร้างมูลค่าเพิ่ม คว้าโอกาสจากการปรับห่วงโซ่อุปทานโลก เสริมความยืดหยุ่นทางการค้า (TPSO Urges Thailand to Accelerate Value Creation, Seize Opportunities from Global Supply Chain Shifts and Strengthen Trade Resilience) | Ministry of Commerce, Trade Policy and Strategy Office | 2026-10-20 | https://www.moc.go.th/th/gallery/category/detail/id/5/iid/2291